How is Norton not in the Best Actor discussion ?

I have seen a ton of mock Best Actor Oscar predictions and on many I have seen, I have NOT seen Edward Norton's name included in those predictions. How can that be ? You know how difficult it is to play two people in a movie ? Plus, I read from several that saw a screening at the Toronto Film Festival, that it could possibly be his best performance of his career other than his turn in American History X.
I can't wait to see the film and performance and see it for myself. These are the same critics that are saying Gabourey Sidibe should win the Oscar for her very first performance on screen ever.
As with any movie regardless of hype or no hype, you will have to make those decisions for yourself.