These are not set in stone Oscar predictions, but with one week left in the year and many precursor nominations already set, and myself doing this this for almost 20 years, I can safely say the names I mention in each category WILL be the 5 names you see somewhere on this list showing up on the ballot when the nominees are announced.
Leading Actor
Javier Bardem- Biutiful
Jeff Bridges- True Grit
Michael Douglas- Solitary Man
Robert Duvall- Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network
Ryan Gosling- Blue Valentine
Colin Firth- The King's Speech
James Franco- 127 Hours
I have Michael Douglas as a dark horse just because of the year he had being very good in one film and being best in show in The Wall Street sequel. His face has also been plastered all over magazines lately too so that keeps his image in the minds of people including Academy members. I think his role in Solitary Man is one of the best performances of the year.. So maybe the sympathy card may get him nominated. So far he's only received a Satellite nod. He's my long shot.
Leading Actress
Annette Bening- The Kid's Are Alright
Sally Hawkins- Made In Dagenham
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone
Lesley Manville- Another Year ( category placement issues )
Julianne Moore- The Kid's Are Alright
Natalie Portman- Black Swan
Hilary Swank- Conviction
Michelle Williams- Blue Valentine
Naomi Watts- Fair Game
It's looking like the race is going to be a shootout between Portman and Bening. It could easily go either way. They just might give it to Bening as a veteran who hasn't won an Oscar yet.
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale- The Fighter
Michael Douglas- Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Aaron Eckhart- Rabbit Hole
Andrew Garfield- The Social Network
Ed Harris- The Way Back
John Hawkes- Winter's Bone
Bill Murray- Get Low
Sean Penn- Fair Game
Jeremy Renner- The Town
Sam Rockwell- Conviction
Mark Ruffalo- The Kid's Are Alright
Geoffrey Rush- The King's Speech
It's looking like it's Christian Bale's award to lose. Do I see anybody worthy of dismantling him ? If it is anybody, it would be Rush as speech therapist Lionel Louge.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams- The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter- The King's Speech
Barbra Hershey- Black Swan
Mila Kunis- Black Swan
Melissa Leo- The Fighter
Rosamund Pike- Made In Dagenham
Sissy Spacek- Get Low
Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit
Jacki Weaver- Animal Kingdom
Diane Wiest- Rabbit Hole
This one looks like it's going to be one of the ladies from The Fighter. But... Jacki Weaver has won a couple of precursors, so she could come in and win it too. Can newcomer Hailee Steinfeld be the surprise and and win ?
Director
Ben Affleck- The Town
Darren Aronofsky- Black Swan
Danny Boyle- 127 Hours
Lisa Cholodenko- The Kid's Are Alright
Ethan and Joel Coen- True Grit
David Fincher- The Social Network
Debra Granik- Winter's Bone
Tom Hooper- The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan- Inception
David O. Russell- The Fighter
Martin Scorsese- Shutter Island
This one category will be interesting. I think there is going to be a split. I have a feeling that Fincher might win director and The King's Speech winning best picture.
Kind of like the situation where Ang Lee won for director on Brokeback Mountain yet Crash won best picture. I wouldn't be surprised if it went down that way.
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2 comments:
Do you really think the very talented Naomi Watts who I think gave the best performance in "Fair Game" still has a nomination chance, after her criminal snub by the so-called HFPA (or the Golden Globes Awards) continuously now for the 11th year?
I have her on the list because with the Academy you just never know what they will do. I tried to put the most with the best chance at a nomination. Obviously some of these actresses won't get in but 5 of those names will.
I liked her in Fair Game. I like Hilary Swank in Conviction but everybody is really riding the Bening, Portman train with Jennifer Lawrence and Nicole Kidman as the possible next two. That leaves one more slot so that could either be Watts, Swank, Manville or Hawkins.
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