Will there be any upsets at this years Oscar's ?

So far all the wins in the precursor awards have been Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, Aaron Sorkin ( The Social Network ) and David Seilder ( The King's Speech ) for screenplays taking home most of the trophies thus far. Until the DGA and PGA wins for The King's Speech recently, it looked like The Social Network was going to win best picture with ease, but now it's not looking so clear cut for TSN. It could still win but The King's Speech is more the Oscar type film. Picture and director, could split though as we saw when Ang Lee won for Brokeback Mountain while Crash took home best picture. That could easily happen this year with David Fincher winning best diector instead of Tom Hooper.

If I had to bet, I would think the actors that have dominated so far are taking home Oscar, but I still have this weird inkling of a feeling about Annette Bening. Sure... Portman has pretty much won everything ( her and Bening split the Globe in drama/comedy ) but the Academy is a different branch of voters and they may feel that Bening is due at this point in her career, a solid actress that's been nominated three times in the past and coming home empty. They could look at choosing her as sort of lifetime achievement, thinking Portamn has a lot more time to pick up the Oscar statue.

So if I had to pick a upset, it would be Annette Bening. Then in a big long shot, Geoffrey Rush for his impeccable acting as Lionel Louge in The King's Speech, though this long shot would blow me away, as I just feel Bale was in another stratosphere of acting as Dicky Ekland in The Fighter.